Session 1A - Symposia: Cognitive effects of communicated probabilities
Organizers: David R. Mandel and Robert N. Collins Moderator: Robert N. Collins (rncollinsphd@gmail.com) Symposia Abstract: Probability communications are commonplace in modern information- and uncertainty-rich societies. This symposium examines several cognitive effects of receiving communications about probability information in either numeric or verbal formats. In Presentation 1, Juanchich et al. examine the conversationally pragmatic assumption that the framing of verbal probabilities is taken as implicit advice that has implications for credibility assessments of the sender. In Presentation 2, also drawing on a pragmatic account, Collins and Mandel examine how probability format (i.e. verbal vs. numeric) affects inference about unstated recommendations and how these in turn affect decision-making. In Presentation 3, Teigen et al. examine the interpretation of the verbal probability “likely” and find that it is interpreted as the mode of a distribution; namely, as the “most likely” value. Finally, in Presentation 4, Mandel et al. examine accuracy across three formats (verbal, point numeric, and numeric ranges) on arithmetic tasks involving computation of averages and products.